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Despite lots of hype in 2022 and 2023, Mastodon has its work cut out to replace X as the internet’s main microblogging platform. Here are six key reasons why the open-source platform may struggle to dethrone X.
1Mastodon Hasn’t Appealed to the Masses
If Mastodon wants to replace X in the long run, it needs to appeal to a broader audience. Most ordinary people don’t pay much attention to whether a platform is centralized or decentralized, for example, nor do they understand the benefits orcharacteristics of a good open-source project. They simply want interesting people to follow and a product that meets their needs, whether that’s closed-source or not.
Some users might feel like Mastodon isn’t much different from X and thus not see the point in migrating their profiles (though it is possible tocross-post between X and Mastodon). If you’re interested in learning more about these platforms, you may check out our guide onwhether Mastodon is a viable X alternative.
2Ordinary Users Often Find Mastodon Difficult to Use
One reasonwhy so many people left Mastodon after joiningwas because many average users find the platform difficult to use. For example, one user onRedditcriticized how challenging the initial setup phase was and that they had to research what servers were before they could use the account as they would have liked to.
The barrier to entry when you join X is very low; once you’ve signed up for an account, you’re able to follow whoever you want. Since people typically prefer the path of least resistance, signing up for X will appeal to more users who just want a social media experience.
3Twitter Is Well-Established
Innovation is crucial in every industry, and there’s always room for a new platform to shake things up. TikTok is one prime example. Nonetheless, changing consumer behaviors and preferences is challenging. The fact that Twitter’s brand is so well-established means that Mastodon faces more of an uphill battle if it wants to replace X.
X is the meeting point for various industries. For example, journalists and news broadcasting outlets often rely on the platform to share stories and quickly get information to their audiences. The same goes for many politicians, and X is also an ideal meeting place to connect with various key figures in the tech sector.
If we again look atwhy TikTok succeeded where Vine didn’t, the app had more appealing features like different in-app creation tools and monetization. While things might change, Mastodon doesn’t have mainstream features that can convince multiple industries and niches to migrate from an already well-established platform.
4Mastodon’s Business Model Might Not Be Enough to Compete With X
Mastodon and X have two very different business models. X generates revenue through advertising and its premium subscriptions, while data licensing is another source of income for the company.
Although Mastodon does have a diverse business model and has the capability to succeed in the long run, competing with a company the size of X is challenging without significant resources. If Mastodon chooses to keep its platform ad-free, it’ll need to think about how it markets existing revenue streams and potentially create new ones.
5Mastodon’s Growth Has Slowed Down
Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in 2022 resulted in many users thinking about Mastodon as an alternative. As reported bythe Guardian, the social media network’s active user base grew from 500,000 to nearly two million between October and mid-November of that year. And in December, the number of active users surpassed 2.5 million.
But that initial growth was never likely to be sustainable, and Mastodon’s growth has slowed down significantly since those highs. As the same Guardian article mentions, Mastodon’s active users had dipped below two million by the start of 2023.
Although X’s monthly active users have declined year-on-year since 2022, the platform still has a significant user base. According toStatista, the app has 335.7 million monthly active users in 2024.
For Mastodon to replace X, it would need to have its late 2022 growth for a sustained period. Considering that the platform now also has to compete with Threads, this is very unlikely. If you decide that you want to try out Instagram’s Twitter alternative, check out thesethings to be aware of before signing up for Threads.
6Users Sometimes Have to Wait to Join Mastodon Instances
Waiting times vary depending on the instance (Mastodon’s name for servers), and you don’t need to wait before joining all of them. Nonetheless, the fact you don’t always get instant access highlights another layer of friction that will put off many ordinary users looking for an X alternative.
Apart from when you need to wait for someone to accept a friend or follow request, consuming other people’s content and connecting with them is instant on most other social media platforms. If users need to wait to join servers they want to be a part of, there are only so many occasions that can occur before they look elsewhere.
While Mastodon is an interesting open-source alternative to X, it has a long way to go before it can fully compete with the platform. Differing business models will make it harder to acquire the resources needed to grow significantly, and the level of resistance for most normal social media users to join is also too high.
If Mastodon can solve these problems while staying true to its brand and offering unique things that X or Threads can’t, it has the potential to succeed. But for now, X’s biggest threat is probably Threads.
